Command Dashboard

Quantitative · where the model puts us. Gov. R. Hartwell holds a 3.4-pt lead over Sen. M. Alvarez statewide (model maturity 78, MoE ±2.1, n=812 likely voters). 72-hr trend is +0.4 pts statewide but tightening 1.1 pts in the Lowcountry (sub-sample n=214) after the Charleston port story broke Tuesday. Top-line drivers: cost-of-living salience 38% (▲4), schools 22% (▬), property tax 17% (▼2), coastal infrastructure 14% (▲6 in coastal counties).

Resources & pace. Cash on hand $113K · 3.1 months of runway · burn $36K/mo. Contact pace +12% w/w in Richland, ‑4% in Berkeley (HD-99 staffing gap). Earned media share-of-voice 54/46 favorable; paid is dark in Upstate until 9/12.

Qualitative · what the field & press are saying. Charleston port funding announcement is driving favorable coverage from WIS, Post & Courier, and WCSC. Coastal flood resilience is rising fast as a top-of-mind issue in Berkeley & Dorchester (canvass: insurance #1 unprompted, 142 doors). Opponent press is testing a "federal delivery" contrast frame — pre-empt with the $1.1B already obligated and the Berkeley interchange groundbreaking on the 24th. Upstate BMW supplier layoffs emerging; coalition desk has 9 partner orgs flagging 14 asks. Watch next 48h.

Read & recommendation. Lead is durable but soft on the coast. Hold the planned Lowcountry media flight without trimming GOTV. Move two surrogates to the Upstate on jobs/manufacturing; do not lead with coast above I-20.